UN Warns El Niño Could Trigger a New Wave of Global Extreme Weather

World Meteorological Organization Says Chances of El Niño Exceed 80%

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning that the world may soon enter an El Niño phase, a climate phenomenon known for disrupting weather patterns across the globe and increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events.

According to the agency, there is an 80% probability that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August. The likelihood rises to more than 90% by November, suggesting that the climate system is moving strongly toward an El Niño event.

Scientists say the event is expected to be at least moderate in strength and could potentially become strong, increasing the risk of droughts, floods, heatwaves, and other weather extremes worldwide.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern centered in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

It develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become significantly warmer than normal.

These warmer waters alter atmospheric circulation patterns and disrupt the normal interaction between the ocean and atmosphere.

The result is a chain reaction that affects weather systems around the world.

El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts between nine and twelve months.

Although it originates in the Pacific Ocean, its impacts can be felt across multiple continents.

How El Niño Changes Global Weather

Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm surface waters westward across the Pacific.

During El Niño, these winds weaken.

Warm water spreads eastward toward the western coasts of the Americas, changing rainfall patterns and atmospheric circulation.

This shift influences weather thousands of kilometers away.

Different regions experience different effects, including:

• Drought
• Flooding
• Heatwaves
• Stronger storms
• Agricultural disruptions
• Water shortages

The specific impacts vary from country to country.

Increased Risk of Extreme Heat

One of the greatest concerns surrounding El Niño is its effect on global temperatures.

Historically, strong El Niño events have coincided with some of the warmest years ever recorded.

When El Niño adds extra heat to an already warming climate, global average temperatures can rise significantly.

Scientists warn that the combination of:

• Human-caused climate change
• Record greenhouse gas concentrations
• El Niño warming

could push global temperatures to new records.

This increases the likelihood of prolonged and intense heatwaves in many regions.

Drought Risks in Some Areas

El Niño often suppresses rainfall in certain parts of the world.

Regions that may experience heightened drought risk include portions of:

• Australia
• Southeast Asia
• Southern Africa
• Parts of Central America

Reduced rainfall can affect:

• Crop production
• Water supplies
• Hydroelectric power generation
• Ecosystem health

In severe cases, prolonged droughts can contribute to food insecurity and economic losses.

Increased Flooding in Other Regions

While some areas become drier, others often become wetter.

El Niño can increase rainfall and flooding risks in parts of:

• South America
• The southern United States
• East Africa
• Certain Pacific coastal regions

Heavy precipitation events may lead to:

• River flooding
• Landslides
• Infrastructure damage
• Population displacement

These impacts can occur rapidly and may overwhelm local disaster-response systems.

Impact on Agriculture

Agriculture is among the sectors most vulnerable to El Niño.

Changes in rainfall and temperature can affect planting schedules, crop yields, and livestock health.

Potential consequences include:

Reduced Crop Production

Drought conditions can lower yields of major crops such as wheat, maize, and rice.

Livestock Stress

Extreme heat and limited water availability can affect animal health and productivity.

Food Price Volatility

Lower agricultural output may contribute to higher food prices in some regions.

Because of these risks, agricultural planners closely monitor El Niño forecasts.

Water Resources Could Be Affected

Changes in rainfall patterns can significantly impact water availability.

Some regions may face:

• Reservoir depletion
• Reduced groundwater recharge
• Drinking water shortages

Meanwhile, areas receiving excessive rainfall may experience:

• Water contamination
• Dam management challenges
• Flood-control difficulties

Water management agencies often use El Niño forecasts to prepare months in advance.

Public Health Concerns

El Niño can also affect human health.

Potential impacts include:

Heat-Related Illnesses

Higher temperatures increase the risk of:

• Heat exhaustion
• Heat stroke
• Dehydration

Disease Transmission

Changes in rainfall and temperature may influence the spread of certain diseases carried by mosquitoes and other vectors.

Air Quality Problems

Drought and wildfire activity can worsen air pollution in affected regions.

Health systems frequently use seasonal climate forecasts to prepare for these risks.

Energy Systems May Face Pressure

El Niño can affect energy production and demand.

Examples include:

Increased Electricity Demand

Hotter temperatures often lead to greater use of air conditioning.

Hydropower Challenges

Drought can reduce water availability for hydroelectric facilities.

Infrastructure Stress

Extreme weather can damage power grids and energy infrastructure.

Utilities often incorporate climate forecasts into operational planning.

Why Scientists Are Watching This Event Closely

The current warning comes at a time when global temperatures are already near record highs.

Climate scientists emphasize that El Niño itself is a natural phenomenon.

However, it now operates within a climate system that has been significantly altered by human activities.

The Earth’s average temperature has increased substantially since preindustrial times due largely to greenhouse gas emissions.

As a result, El Niño events today may occur against a warmer baseline than similar events decades ago.

This can amplify some impacts.

The Role of Early Warning Systems

The WMO has stressed the importance of preparation.

Modern forecasting systems allow governments and organizations to anticipate many El Niño-related risks months in advance.

Early warnings can help:

• Farmers adjust planting decisions
• Water managers prepare for shortages or floods
• Health agencies plan for heatwaves
• Emergency services strengthen disaster readiness
• Energy providers manage demand fluctuations

The earlier preparations begin, the more effectively communities can reduce potential damage.

El Niño and Climate Change: Understanding the Difference

It is important to distinguish between El Niño and climate change.

El Niño

• Natural climate cycle
• Occurs periodically
• Typically lasts less than a year

Climate Change

• Long-term trend
• Driven primarily by greenhouse gas emissions
• Persists over decades and centuries

However, the two can interact.

Climate change raises baseline temperatures, while El Niño can temporarily add additional warming.

Together, they may produce unusually intense climate impacts.

What Happens Next?

Scientists will continue monitoring:

• Pacific Ocean temperatures
• Atmospheric pressure patterns
• Trade wind behavior
• Rainfall trends

If conditions continue developing as expected, El Niño could become firmly established in the coming months.

The strength of the event will determine how significant its impacts become.

While uncertainty remains regarding regional effects, confidence is growing that a substantial El Niño episode is likely.

Conclusion

The World Meteorological Organization’s latest assessment indicates a high probability that El Niño will develop in the near future, with chances exceeding 80% and potentially rising above 90% later in the year.

Because El Niño influences weather patterns worldwide, its arrival could increase the risk of droughts, floods, heatwaves, agricultural disruptions, and record-breaking temperatures.

Although El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, its effects may be amplified by ongoing global warming, making preparation more important than ever.

Governments, businesses, farmers, and communities are being encouraged to use early warning systems and climate forecasts to prepare for a period of potentially heightened weather extremes around the world.